The return of the NFL this week means the return of betting on the NFL, for better or worse. Winning money by betting on NFL games, not surprisingly, is a difficult proposition. After all, to be profitable, you need to beat the house and cover the commission, which necessitates a win rate of approximately 52 percent, assuming you are wagering $110 to win $100 on a standard -110 line.
For context, among the 385 so-called experts tracked by Pickwatch last season, only 34 were correct on better than 52 percent of their against-the-spread recommendations picking all the games last season.
How do we plan on beating those odds? As always, instead of riding the waves of instinct and conjecture, we will rely on a blend of quantitative assessment and astute line evaluation. A key cornerstone of our approach early in the season involves the meticulous study of preseason point spreads from a range of reputable oddsmakers. This forms the basis of our initial power rankings for each team, allowing us to assess the early dynamics of the league.
The crux of our strategy then relies on comparing our predictions with the actual point spreads. This calculated approach, combining our initial power rankings with real-time adjustments, lays the foundation for our selections. As the season progresses and teams reveal their true colors, our reliance on the preliminary rankings naturally wanes, yielding to a more finely attuned assessment of their actual prowess.
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In addition to point spreads, we will also occasionally look at full-game totals, first-half totals and first-half point spreads, as well as player props — wagers concerning the statistical performances of individual players.
Beyond this, our arsenal of strategies includes an art as old as sports betting itself: line shopping. In the world of wagering, not all bookmakers are created equal. Some best take advantage of the early insights of seasoned professionals. That empowers us to venture where odds are more favorable, enhancing our overall approach.
And now, on to the Week 1 games. These picks were made against the consensus point spreads as of Wednesday morning; odds that have since changed have been updated in bold type, but picks are locked in at the earlier odds. In full transparency, last year’s best bets record was 13-13-1, while last year’s record on player props was 6-2.
Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears (-1)
Return to menuSunday, 4:25 p.m. | Fox
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Pick: Green Bay Packers +1 or +105 on the money line
The Packers have dominated this rivalry lately and last lost to the Bears in Week 15 of 2018. Green Bay is 8-0 straight up against Chicago since, and has covered the spread in each of those contests, albeit as the favorite in the past seven matchups. But this is a relatively small sample size, and included quarterback Aaron Rodgers at the helm. Now that he is with the New York Jets and Jordan Love is under center for the Packers, the pendulum may appear to have swung in Chicago’s favor. However, the heart of the value in Green Bay lies in the Bears’ ongoing struggles with injuries on the offensive line, including the absence of their top run-blocker Teven Jenkins.
That should enhance the performance of Green Bay defensive tackle Kenny Clark, who has consistently disrupted the Bears’ offense in their previous encounters. With 4.5 sacks in the past eight meetings with the Bears, Clark’s presence on the interior has been a nightmare for Chicago’s offensive line, and Green Bay’s defensive edge should help the Love era get off to a positive start.
Miami Dolphins at Los Angeles Chargers (-3)
Return to menuSunday, 4:25 p.m. | CBS
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Pick: Miami Dolphins +1½ -125 in the second half (wager $125 to win $100). For the game, the pick is Miami +3, but it isn’t a best bet.
The Chargers don’t thrive in the second half with Justin Herbert under center. Since 2020, Herbert’s rookie year, the Chargers have averaged a minus-2.7 per game point differential in the second half, the fifth-worst mark in the NFL. Overall, Herbert and the Chargers have gone 17-30-2 against their opponents in the second half. Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins, by comparison, are 16-16-1 in the second half over the past three seasons. Take the Dolphins and the points in the second half in Week 1.
The plays above represent our best bets of the week because our analysis shows their value is the most lucrative compared with what we expect to happen on the field. Below, you will find against-the-spread picks for all of the games on this week’s schedule. However, trying to pick every game is something of a fool’s errand. The house wins so often partly because bettors try to make too many plays when the odds aren’t in their favor. Keep that in mind when evaluating the remaining games from this week’s slate.
Detroit Lions at Kansas City Chiefs (-4½)
Return to menuThursday, 8:20 p.m. | NBC, Universo
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Pick: Kansas City -4½, but bet an alternate line of Kansas City Chiefs -6½ at plus odds
This game is a perfect opportunity to discuss key numbers when betting football. The primary key numbers are 3 and 7, common margins of victory due to field goals and touchdowns. Understanding these key numbers is crucial for bettors and can lead to more profitable wagers.
Since 2002, when the NFL expanded to 32 teams, teams favored by between 4 and 5½ points outscored opponents by seven or more points 67 percent of the time when they won. Those favorites won by 10 or more points half the time. That means if you expect Kansas City to win (which it has to do to cover a 4½-point spread), it is more advantageous to get plus money (odds above +100) on an alternate line, such as Chiefs -6½ or Chiefs -9½, than it is to go with -4½ at -110 odds (wager $110 to win $100).
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Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (-3½)
Return to menuSunday, 1 p.m. | Fox
Pick: Carolina Panthers +3½
Arizona Cardinals at Washington Commanders (-7)
Return to menuSunday, 1 p.m. | Fox
Pick: Arizona Cardinals +7
Cincinnati Bengals (-2½) at Cleveland Browns
Return to menuSunday, 1 p.m. | CBS
Pick: Cincinnati Bengals -2½
Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens (-10)
Return to menuSunday, 1 p.m. | CBS
Pick: Baltimore Ravens -10
Jacksonville Jaguars (-5) at Indianapolis Colts
Return to menuSunday, 1 p.m. | Fox
Pick: Indianapolis Colts +5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Minnesota Vikings (-6)
Return to menuSunday, 1 p.m. | CBS
Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +6
Tennessee Titans at New Orleans Saints (-3)
Return to menuSunday, 1 p.m. | CBS
Pick: New Orleans Saints -3
San Francisco 49ers (-2½) at Pittsburgh Steelers
Return to menuSunday, 1 p.m. | Fox
Pick: San Francisco 49ers -2½
Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos (-3½)
Return to menuSunday, 4:25 p.m. | CBS
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Pick: Las Vegas Raiders +3½
Philadelphia Eagles (-4) at New England Patriots
Return to menuSunday, 4:25 p.m. | CBS
Pick: Philadelphia Eagles -4
Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks (-5)
Return to menuSunday, 4:25 p.m. | Fox
Pick: Seattle Seahawks -5
Dallas Cowboys (-3½) at New York Giants
Return to menuSunday, 8:20 p.m. | NBC, Telemundo
Pick: Dallas Cowboys -3½
Buffalo Bills (-2½) at New York Jets
Return to menuMonday, 8:15 p.m. | ABC, ESPN, ESPN2
Pick: Buffalo Bills -2½
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